Do you own a phone? The question is almost redundant, many young adults would struggle to contemplate life without such an essential ancillary. In fact nomophobia: the terrifying fear of being without your phone, is, unsurprisingly on the rise. My cyclical 3 item mantra recited before leaving the house each morning, (followed by habitual pocket patting) consists of “keys, wallet, phone”, I think phone replaced “bus pass” when I was eighteen. All items are now utterly essential in my ability to have a successful day!
It’s great to be connected and have instant access to my chosen apps, emails and contacts but could my dependency be reclassified as addiction? It does cross my mind. For me a phone is much more than a communication device, it’s a soothing, dopamine stimulating distraction. Like a cigarette can divert nervous anxiety in an uncomfortable social setting a phone typically emerges as a tangible saviour, deflecting that awkward sensation so to minimise anxiety. I’m surprised a well marketed metaphor or acronym hasn’t diverted popular culture away from the prosaic label of “smartphone”, much like how “cloud” now denotes any and all off-LAN hosted services. A far sexier ambiguous lexis often supersedes the jargon of origin.
The latest generation of mobile device is superseded, on average, every 12 months. It is the fasted evolving gadget of choice and certainly the centerpiece of a booming sector. This is partly due to function, which sits in second place behind social status. As much as the geekier users (I include myself here) take great pride in reeling off the processing power, solid-state memory, screen resolution and megapixel quotas it is undeniable that aesthetics and peer approval outrank tech stats when that upgrade event occurs for the majority of users.
So what does the near future hold for our most treasured technological possession?
Phones are a great example as to how technology can develop rapidly and incorporate other very useful components, it’s highly unusual to find a phone without a multi-megapxiel camera (enhanced further by software), GPS navigation, gyroscopes and as mini-computers all the software; social media, games and internet browsing capabilities that a short time ago were considered only PC possible. Unlike the tablet and laptop/notebook market cost is not as much of a barrier due to the bountiful contract schemes, coupled with regular offers and upgrade incentives. So, there is a strong possibility that the phone will eat-up the gap in the market currently filled by high-end tablets and low-end laptops.
With that in mind, I’m aware that my 3 item mantra is already outdated — I can pay for things with my phone [1], it is also quite possible for me to replace my house key via an access control system, where my phone becomes my key [2]. One device has the potential to solve all but for some reason that leap makes me nervous as I think both strands are still in the process of maturing, so I’ll wait a bit longer. Honestly — the only thing holding me back… my approaching middle aged “prudence”!
Despite my hesitation it seems that one device will eventually fit all. My phone will likely be the only thing I need when venturing out as well as controlling household appliances from within. Integration is paramount to each new generation, once connected/synchronised with other gadgets I hold the master control. It should be noted that this inevitable integration is not purely hardware progression but relies heavily on software apps working seamlessly across all platforms and establishing universal protocols.
And for the future?
Before getting carried away I’d like to address a few of the notable tethers currently hindering progress:
Network coverage: In order for there to be a successful fully interconnected future, network coverage has to improve and be consistently available everywhere. Currently in the UK this is absolutely not the case [3]. It’s fascinating to think that if we were to transport a modern day phone back in time to the year of my birth (1976), it would be relatively useless. It would make for an amazing digital camera but with no “magic in the ether” it’s primary and secondary functions would remain dormant. Unfortunately due to frequently encountered coverage voids in 2017, my phone often sustains periods of suspended service, much like being transported back to 1976.
The consistent deployment of supporting architecture requires urgent expedition. Once complete vendors can practice what they preach and reliably move storage and considerable amounts of processing to the cloud, consequently the device becomes much more flexible, significant local components being the wireless transceivers (5G and beyond) and ultra long-life battery with rapid charge.
Battery status: Battery improvements have lagged far behind in comparison to other components, they are the technological equivalent of the tortoise in the sprint. Batteries however cannot be bundled into the same category as other chipset components, which for many years followed Moore’s law of doubling up (interestingly no longer the case). Batteries are distinct as electrochemical containers and have the unfortunate potential to explode when things go wrong! Progress has occurred; from lead, to nickel, to lithium. Lithium is the lightest element available (that remains solid in ambient terrestrial conditions), so we’ve hit a hard limit on the ladder of chemical options.
Manufacturers can no longer move up and to the left on the periodic table to push things further forward. This is why approaches that attempt to change the game attract much attention — manufacturers have to shift out of the current architectural/chemical paradigm in order to satisfy user expectation.
Interestingly while researching this element I found a plethora of articles describing exciting breakthroughs [4], some reported many years ago. It would seem, as with medical advances, discovery to production is a long process and I can’t help but wonder if some advancements are being held back to maximise profit from current products.
In terms of what’s next — nano batteries look to be the front-runners, utilising flexible graphene-based honeycomb arrays. Not only will they charge rapidly and last longer, they may better lend themselves to wireless charging [5]. Going further forward, devices may supplement primary charge sources via closed-loop biological output, taking trickle-energy from the host/user.
Once free of these limitations I predict biology and technology will be entangled in the nascency of a compulsive affair [6]. This meshing is, for some, quite an uncomfortable symbiosis but it has happened to some extent already. The smartwatch has paved the way for real-time biofeedback working in tandem with the phone. Currently manual intervention is required on the part of the wearer but the data provided can take the guessing out of dieting, exercising and health status. I believe this will progress rapidly to the point where an evolutionary leap occurs, technology will operate so closely with biology that it will assist in maintaining homeostasis and prime health increasing longevity and providing very early warning signs should defects manifest.
Going forward another fifty years and there’s even more outlandish possibilities, should a device be able to couple with biology so closely to influence the hypothalamic and anterior pituitary (via an implant or neural lace); insulin, thyroxine and growth hormone could be stimulated and scrutinised via a real-time endocrinologist-app, with fluctuation outside of predefined healthy ranges inhibited an individual could extend their prime by many years. Taking into consideration human nature and social media trends pertaining to the selfie culture, it’s likely that individuals would modify the configuration (hacking the app) so to design their body based on modified hormone output but that’s another blog for another time!
Concurrently during this period I predict a complete interface overhaul with augmented or mixed reality being the next modus operandi, where the “phone” via an ocular overlay presents an enhanced visible environment offering an information-super-rich experience. This magic leap will shift the paradigm as users experience the World quite differently, distinguishing between Ultra-HD holographic veneers may pose quite a risk to both physical safety and mental sanity. Consequently new laws may be debated and passed much like existing bills pertaining to phone use while driving.
Gesture controls will overtake keyboard and navigation button inputs found on current era phones however both utilities can be called-up when needed via the relevant motion. Due to enhanced compatibility with other devices and accurate environment mapping the interface will adapt to surroundings. This will eventually make the traditional PC, monitor, keyboard and mouse obsolete but holographic representations of such devices could be pulled-up within AR when desired.
So, with a new interface, biological integration and highly advanced infrastructure this new device will be central to human life, it would sync universally and recognise almost anything digital and bio-digital. I imagine that the majority of devices would offer multi-mode operation and may either transform into headsets or sync with them, the headsets themselves would weigh little more than sunglasses and be just as robust — providing a layered extra-dimension. Evolutionary obstacles would likely include ergonomics, material availability and aesthetics — no one wants to wear a heavy, ugly headset. I predict the fashion industry will have a part to play in driving this on with integrated tech hitting catwalks and then proliferating into the mainstream. Like current era phones, tech will be an ascribed status symbol.
Subsequent hurdles are likely to be of sociopolitical and lifestyle persuasions, AR will no doubt prompt a political discussion as the enhancements to everyday life will be seen by some as essential, while other groups will counter that such states are unhealthy and unnatural. Enthusiastic users will be reluctant to return to the base non-augmented reality arguing that it vastly improves the human experience. A controversial aspect of mixed reality is that every environment is potentially a surveillance domain. By definition, everything inside a AR is tracked and recorded, this will no doubt inspire incognito modes, versions of (IP) spoofing and proxy avoidance tools to provide (partial) anonymity.
There will be many new opportunities for entrepreneurs during the boom of the overlaid environment, the production of an intuitive OS being key. Additionally, education/training, gaming and leisure material will be highly sought after.
A portion of the above may occur within my lifetime. Moving beyond, there is speculation that we will engineer tech within our biology and as cybernetic sapiens redefine ourselves and our reality. So is the phone and its associated tech-binding psychology/culture a catalyst for our next evolutionary leap? I think so.
For those born 100 years from now, perhaps you’ve stumbled across this historical musing from an era gone by!
Read to you by a voice of your choice like a lullaby.
Where the “real world” is too mundane to sustain without additional advice from your symbiotic device.
[1] https://www.cnet.com/uk/how-to/apple-pay-vs-google-wallet-vs-paypal/
[2] http://www.postscapes.com/wireless-door-locks/
[3] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/16/why-is-the-uks-mobile-phone-coverage-so-bad